CBAM certificate price rises to €82.32 for the third quarter

The European Commission published the CBAM certificate price for the third quarter of 2026 on 5 October at €82.32 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, according to the Commission's price page. That compares with €75.28 for the second quarter, published on 6 July, and €75.36 for the first quarter, published on 7 April. The rise from the second quarter is €7.04, or 9.35 per cent, according to CBAM Guide, an independent tracker.

The price applies to goods imported into the European Union between 1 July and 30 September 2026 under the carbon border adjustment mechanism, which entered its definitive phase on 1 January. The fourth-quarter price is due on 4 January 2027, the Commission page states.

How the price is set

The Commission describes the price as a weighted average of the auction clearing prices of EU emissions trading system allowances, designed to keep the carbon cost on imports consistent with the cost borne by EU producers. It is calculated from publicly available auction information, and the governing rules are Regulation (EU) 2023/956 and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548 of 10 December 2025, which sets out the calculation and publication of the price.

In 2026 the Commission publishes one price per calendar quarter, calculated in the first calendar week after the quarter ends. From 2027 it will publish weekly prices, and all CBAM certificates will be bought on a common central platform from February 2027, according to the Commission page.

What it means for importers and exporters

CBAM puts the obligation on EU importers, not on foreign producers. Since 1 January, importers must register as authorised declarants with their national authority and pay for the emissions embedded in covered goods, and the emissions must be verified by an accredited verifier, as the Commission's Access2Markets guidance sets out. A de minimis rule exempts importers whose imports stay under 50 tonnes net mass a year, aggregated across all product codes, but it does not apply to hydrogen or electricity, the same guidance says.

The obligation is phased in as free allocation to EU producers is phased out, with full implementation in 2034, when importers will buy certificates equal to the carbon price that would have been paid under EU rules, the Commission's guidance says. Importers that rely on default emission values rather than verified producer data face a mark-up. According to CBAM Guide, it is 10 per cent in 2026, or 1 per cent for fertilisers, rising to 20 per cent in 2027 and 30 per cent from 2028.

How much of that cost falls back on exporters in emerging markets depends on contract terms and on whether producers supply verified emissions data in place of default values. CBAM Guide estimates that 10,000 tonnes of Turkish semi-finished steel on default emission values would need 12,111 certificates, costing €996,978 at the Q3 price against €911,716 at the Q2 price, a difference of €85,261. That figure is the tracker's own calculation, not an official one, and it uses default values rather than a producer's verified emissions, the page explains.

Türkiye is among the largest suppliers affected. CBAM Guide, citing Eurostat trade data, reports that the EU imported €10.83 billion of CBAM-covered goods from Türkiye in 2025, 9.7 per cent of such imports from outside the bloc by value and second only to China. Iron and steel accounted for €7.18 billion of that, according to the same page.

What to watch

• The fourth-quarter price, due on 4 January 2027, which will complete the four quarterly inputs for 2026, per the Commission.
• The opening of certificate purchases against 2026 liabilities on 1 February 2027, at the official quarterly averages rather than daily prices, according to CBAM Guide.
• The first annual declaration, which CBAM Guide says is due on 30 September 2027 and covers all of 2026.

The price is an average of past auctions, so it moves less than the daily allowance price. The Commission's switch to weekly prices in 2027 will make the published figure track the market more closely, according to the price schedule it has set.